The first set of College Football Playoff Committee rankings are set to be released next Tuesday (Nov. 2).
With Nebraska currently standing at 7-0 on the season, and a chance to move to 8-0 with a win over Wisconsin Saturday night, there’s zero chance the Huskers won’t be ranked somewhere in the top 25. Regardless of how Nebraska fares this weekend, the question becomes, how will the committee view the Huskers come Tuesday night? A win obviously changes things significantly, but a loss probably doesn’t do a ton of damage to NU’s standing.
Here are a few things the committee will likely consider when it comes to Nebraska.
Lack of multiple quality wins
Generally speaking, the committee defines high quality wins as victories over teams ranked in their own top-25. With a win over Wisconsin this weekend, the Huskers would have exactly one of those. With a loss, they’re looking at zero.
Husker fans will argue that Oregon was a better team at the time than what their record currently indicates, and that Northwestern could project to be a good win by the end of the season.
But keep two things in mind – first, the committee has been consistent in not projecting what “might” happen. While Northwestern is certainly playing better football as the season has gone along, there’s a strong chance the Wildcats will be just 4-4 after this weekend.
Second, the committee has never applied the “eyeball test” to a single game matchup. While Oregon was a better team vs. Nebraska than their record now indicates, the committee has never looked at a single game and applied that logic. The only time the eyeball test has been applied is at the end of the season, and when comparing teams head-to-head that have similar resumes. Don’t count on the committee giving Nebraska much credit for beating Oregon.
Lack of bad losses
Even if the Huskers lose this weekend to Wisconsin, it’s unlikely the committee will view the defeat as a “bad loss.” The Huskers have put themselves in a great position here compared to other teams they’ll be up against.
Weak strength of schedule – so far
Remember, the committee has been consistent in only judging teams on what they have done to date. While Nebraska has a much tougher road in front of them, so far (depending on which method you apply), the Huskers have played around the 70th toughest schedule in college football, which ranks among the easiest of the Power 5 teams.
While this won’t be a long-term problem for the Huskers (ESPN.com’s FPI has Nebraska’s remaining SOS ranked at #16), Nebraska won’t win many points for what they’ve done so far compared to other teams. Speaking of ESPN’s FPI, Nebraska currently ranks #26, second lowest among undefeated FBS teams (Boise State ranks #28).
So where will Nebraska be ranked if they win this weekend?
If we apply the same logic to other teams that we just did to Nebraska, here’s how I think the top-10 could shake out if the Huskers manage to win this weekend in Madison (projected record in parenthesis). The second record given is projected good wins-bad losses to date.
1. Alabama (8-0) 5-0
2. Clemson (8-0) 3-0
3. Michigan (8-0) 2-0
4. Washington (8-0) 2-0
5. Louisville (7-1) 2-0
6. Texas A&M (7-1) 3-0
7. Ohio State (7-1) 2-0
8. Nebraska (8-0) 1-0
9. West Virginia (7-0) 1-0
10. Tennessee (6-2) 2-0
I could easily be off by a spot or two with some of those teams. If the Huskers were to lose, they’re probably looking at a ranking somewhere between 12-15, with the potential for at least one two-loss team in front of them.
